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War and Peace in Space and Time: The Role of Democratization

Gleditsch, Kristian S and Ward, Michael D (2000) 'War and Peace in Space and Time: The Role of Democratization.' International Studies Quarterly, 44 (1). pp. 1-29. ISSN 0020-8833

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Democratization reduces the risk of war, but uneven transitions toward democracy can increase the probability of war. Using country-level data on democratization and international war from the period 1875-1996, we develop a general additive statistical model reassessing this claim in light of temporal and spatial dependence. We also develop a new geo-political database of contiguities and demonstrate new statistical techniques for probing the extent of spatial clustering and its impact on the relationship between democratization and war. Our findings reaffirm that democratization generally does reduce the risk of war, but that large swings back and forth between democracy and autocracy can increase war proneness. We show that the historical context of peace diminishes the risk of war, while a regional context plagued by conflict greatly magnifies it.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 13 Jan 2015 14:46
Last Modified: 18 Aug 2022 10:40

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