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Political Leadership Changes and the Withdrawal from Military Coalition Operations, 1946-2001

Pilster, Ulrich and Böhmelt, Tobias and Tago, Atsushi (2015) 'Political Leadership Changes and the Withdrawal from Military Coalition Operations, 1946-2001.' International Studies Perspectives, 16 (4). pp. 463-483. ISSN 1528-3577

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Several studies have claimed that changes in the political leadership of a country affect foreign policy decision making. The following paper systematically tests this in the context of states' participation in military coalition operations. By building on previous theoretical models, the authors argue that new leaders may differ from their predecessors in that the former (i) have dissimilar preferences with regard to the involvement in military interventions, (ii) evaluate relevant information differently, and (iii) are less likely to be entrapped in intervention policies. Ultimately, the net effect of these factors should make it more likely that political leadership turnovers are associated with premature withdrawals from ongoing military coalitions. The theory is tested by quantitative analyses of newly collected data on military coalition operations in 1946-2001 and a qualitative case study. The authors find strong and robust support for their argument.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: military coalitions; military interventions; political leaders; leadership turnover; troop withdrawal
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 16 Oct 2014 09:30
Last Modified: 15 Jan 2022 00:48

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