Research Repository

Forecasting military expenditure

Böhmelt, T and Bove, V (2014) 'Forecasting military expenditure.' Research and Politics, 1 (1). ISSN 2053-1680

[img]
Preview
Text
Research & Politics-2014-Böhmelt-.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

Download (635kB) | Preview

Abstract

© The Author(s) 2014. To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
Depositing User: Jim Jamieson
Date Deposited: 16 Oct 2014 11:12
Last Modified: 05 Feb 2019 01:15
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/10885

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item