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Extreme Bounds of Democracy

Gassebner, M and Lamla, MJ and Vreeland, JR (2013) 'Extreme Bounds of Democracy.' Journal of Conflict Resolution, 57 (2). 171 - 197. ISSN 0022-0027

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Abstract

What determines the emergence and survival of democracy? The authors apply extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of fifty-nine factors proposed in the literature, evaluating over three million regressions with data from 165 countries from 1976 to 2002. The most robust determinants of the transition to democracy are gross domestic product (GDP) growth (a negative effect), past transitions (a positive effect), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development membership (a positive effect). There is some evidence that fuel exporters and Muslim countries are less likely to see democracy emerge, although the latter finding is driven entirely by oil-producing Muslim countries. Regarding the survival of democracy, the most robust determinants are GDP per capita (a positive effect) and past transitions (a negative effect). There is some evidence that having a former military leader as the chief executive has a negative effect, while having other democracies as neighbors has a reinforcing effect. © The Author(s) 2012.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School
Depositing User: Users 161 not found.
Date Deposited: 09 Jan 2015 21:16
Last Modified: 11 Nov 2019 22:15
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/11212

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