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Recovering default risk from CDS spreads with a nonlinear filter

Guarin, Alexander and Liu, Xiaoquan and Ng, Wing Lon (2014) 'Recovering default risk from CDS spreads with a nonlinear filter.' Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 38. pp. 87-104. ISSN 0165-1889

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We propose a nonlinear filter to estimate the time-varying default risk from the term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Based on the numerical solution of the Fokker–Planck equation (FPE) using a meshfree interpolation method, the filter performs a joint estimation of the risk-neutral default intensity and CIR model parameters. As the FPE can account for nonlinear functions and non-Gaussian errors, the proposed framework provides outstanding flexibility and accuracy. We test the nonlinear filter on simulated spreads and apply it to daily CDS data of the Dow Jones Industrial Average component companies from 2005 to 2010 with supportive results.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: CDS spreads; Meshfree methods; Radial basis function interpolation; Fokker–Planck equation; CIR model
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 11 Nov 2014 11:22
Last Modified: 08 Jan 2022 00:31

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