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Bootstrap Determination of the Co-Integration Rank in Heteroskedastic VAR Models

Cavaliere, G and Rahbek, A and Robert Taylor, AM (2014) 'Bootstrap Determination of the Co-Integration Rank in Heteroskedastic VAR Models.' Econometric Reviews, 33 (5-6). 606 - 650. ISSN 0747-4938

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Abstract

In a recent paper Cavaliere et al. (2012) develop bootstrap implementations of the (pseudo-) likelihood ratio (PLR) co-integration rank test and associated sequential rank determination procedure of Johansen (1996). The bootstrap samples are constructed using the restricted parameter estimates of the underlying vector autoregressive (VAR) model which obtain under the reduced rank null hypothesis. They propose methods based on an independent and individual distributed (i.i.d.) bootstrap resampling scheme and establish the validity of their proposed bootstrap procedures in the context of a co-integrated VAR model with i.i.d. innovations. In this paper we investigate the properties of their bootstrap procedures, together with analogous procedures based on a wild bootstrap resampling scheme, when time-varying behavior is present in either the conditional or unconditional variance of the innovations. We show that the bootstrap PLR tests are asymptotically correctly sized and, moreover, that the probability that the associated bootstrap sequential procedures select a rank smaller than the true rank converges to zero. This result is shown to hold for both the i.i.d. and wild bootstrap variants under conditional heteroskedasticity but only for the latter under unconditional heteroskedasticity. Monte Carlo evidence is reported which suggests that the bootstrap approach of Cavaliere et al. (2012) significantly improves upon the finite sample performance of corresponding procedures based on either the asymptotic PLR test or an alternative bootstrap method (where the short run dynamics in the VAR model are estimated unrestrictedly) for a variety of conditionally and unconditionally heteroskedastic innovation processes. © 2014 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School
Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School > Essex Finance Centre
Depositing User: Users 161 not found.
Date Deposited: 28 Oct 2014 12:32
Last Modified: 30 Jan 2019 16:18
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/11239

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