Research Repository

A Quantile Regression Approach to Equity Premium Prediction

Meligkotsidou, Loukia and Panopoulou, Ekaterini and Vrontos, Ioannis D and Vrontos, Spyridon D (2014) 'A Quantile Regression Approach to Equity Premium Prediction.' Journal of Forecasting, 33 (7). pp. 558-576. ISSN 0277-6693

[img]
Preview
Text
MPVV.pdf - Submitted Version

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

We propose a quantile regression approach to equity premium forecasting. Robust point forecasts are generated from a set of quantile forecasts using both fixed and time-varying weighting schemes, thereby exploiting the entire distributional information associated with each predictor. Further gains are achieved by incorporating the forecast combination methodology into our quantile regression setting. Our approach using a time-varying weighting scheme delivers statistically and economically significant out-of-sample forecasts relative to both the historical average benchmark and the combined predictive mean regression modeling approach.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: equity premium; forecast combination; predictive quantile regression; robust point forecasts; time-varying weights
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Health
Faculty of Science and Health > Mathematical Sciences, Department of
Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School
Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School > Essex Finance Centre
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 12 Nov 2014 20:05
Last Modified: 15 Jan 2022 00:47
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/11558

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item