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Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting in the US, 1972–2008

Stegmueller, Daniel (2014) 'Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting in the US, 1972–2008.' Electoral Studies, 33. pp. 52-62. ISSN 0261-3794

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Abstract

To examine dynamics of political processes using repeated cross-section data, effects of age, cohort, and time period have to be disentangled. I propose a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model with cohort and period effects modeled as random walk through time. It includes smoothly time-varying effects of covariates, allowing researchers to study changing effects of individual characteristics on political behavior. It provides a flexible functional form estimate of age by integrating a semi-parametric approach in the hierarchical model. I employ this approach to examine religious voting in the United States using repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1972 to 2008. I find starkly differing nonlinear trends of de- and re-alignment among different religious denominations.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Age-period-cohort; Hierarchical models; State-space models; Religion; Voting
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
Depositing User: Users 161 not found.
Date Deposited: 15 Dec 2014 11:41
Last Modified: 16 Dec 2014 12:09
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/12112

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