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Economic performance, management competence and the outcome of the next general election

Sanders, D (1996) 'Economic performance, management competence and the outcome of the next general election.' Political Studies, 44 (2). 203 - 209. ISSN 0032-3217

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Abstract

The paper discusses the prospects for successfully forecasting the outcome of the next UK general election. It focuses on the problem of deciding which estimation period should be used in order to produce a particular set of political forecasts. A series of forecasting equations are developed based partly on different estimation periods and partly on different assumptions about which particular economic perceptions will prove decisive in British politics over the next year or so. Although the precise results of the various forecasting models differ, they all converge on the conclusion that the Conservatives are unlikely to recover sufficiently on the basis of purely economic considerations to win the next general election.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
Depositing User: Jim Jamieson
Date Deposited: 29 Apr 2015 09:15
Last Modified: 17 Aug 2017 17:37
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/13633

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