Chen, Jian and Shen, Liya and Wang, Xiaoke and Zuo, Haomiao (2015) The role of variance risk premium in predicting excess stock market return: out-of-sample evidences. Applied Economics Letters, 22 (17). pp. 1-7. DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2015.1034831
Chen, Jian and Shen, Liya and Wang, Xiaoke and Zuo, Haomiao (2015) The role of variance risk premium in predicting excess stock market return: out-of-sample evidences. Applied Economics Letters, 22 (17). pp. 1-7. DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2015.1034831
Chen, Jian and Shen, Liya and Wang, Xiaoke and Zuo, Haomiao (2015) The role of variance risk premium in predicting excess stock market return: out-of-sample evidences. Applied Economics Letters, 22 (17). pp. 1-7. DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2015.1034831
Abstract
This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of variance risk premium in predicting excess stock market returns across nine international markets. We assess the out-of-sample predictability through statistical and economic significance tests and find that the variance risk premium has strong forecasting power at the 4-month horizon for most of the international markets considered in this study. In addition, we find the predictability is even stronger during the recent financial crisis period.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | variance risk premium; out-of-sample prediction; stock return predictability |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School > Essex Finance Centre |
| SWORD Depositor: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
| Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
| Date Deposited: | 24 Sep 2015 12:27 |
| Last Modified: | 18 Aug 2022 12:09 |
| URI: | http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/15044 |