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The prebisch-singer hypothesis: Four centuries of evidence

Harvey, DI and Kellard, NM and Madsen, JB and Wohar, ME (2010) 'The prebisch-singer hypothesis: Four centuries of evidence.' Review of Economics and Statistics, 92 (2). 367 - 377. ISSN 0034-6535

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Abstract

We employ a unique data set and new time-series techniques to reexamine the existence of trends in relative primary commodity prices. The data set comprises 25 commodities and provides a new historical perspective, spanning the seventeenth to the twenty-first centuries. New tests for the trend function, robust to the order of integration of the series, are applied to the data. Results show that eleven price series present a significant and downward trend over all or some fraction of the sample period. In the very long run, a secular, deteriorating trend is a relevant phenomenon for a significant proportion of primary commodities. © 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School
Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School > Essex Finance Centre
Depositing User: Neil Kellard
Date Deposited: 15 Nov 2011 10:19
Last Modified: 27 Nov 2017 18:16
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/1505

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