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Forecasting the 2015 British general election: The Seats-Votes model

Whiteley, Paul and Clarke, Harold D and Sanders, David and Stewart, Marianne C (2016) 'Forecasting the 2015 British general election: The Seats-Votes model.' Electoral Studies, 41. pp. 269-273. ISSN 0261-3794

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This paper applies the Seats-Votes Model to the task of forecasting the outcome of the 2015 election in Britain in terms of the seats won by the three major parties. The model derives originally from the 'Law of Cubic Proportions' the first formal statistical election forecasting model to be developed in Britain. It is an aggregate model which utilises the seats won by the major parties in the previous general election together with vote intentions six months prior to the general election to forecast seats. The model was reasonably successful in forecasting the 2005 and 2010 general elections, but has to be modified to take into account the 'regime shift' which occurred when the Liberal Democrats went into coalition with the Conservatives in 2010.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Cube rule; Seat forecasts; ARIMA time series models
Subjects: J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 04 Dec 2015 15:17
Last Modified: 15 Jan 2022 00:52

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