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A Bayesian Belief Network to assess rate of changes in coral reef ecosystems

Franco, Chiara and Hepburn, Leanne Appleby and Smith, David J and Nimrod, Stephen and Tucker, Allan (2016) 'A Bayesian Belief Network to assess rate of changes in coral reef ecosystems.' Environmental Modelling and Software, 80. 132 - 142. ISSN 1364-8152

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Abstract

It is crucial to identify sources of impacts and degradation to maintain functions and services that the physical structure of coral reef provides. Here, a Bayesian Network approach is used to evaluate effects that anthropogenic and climate change disturbances have on coral reef structure. The network was constructed on knowledge derived from the literature and elicited from experts, and parameterised on independent data. Evaluation of the model was conducted through sensitivity analyses and data integration was fundamental to obtain a balanced dataset. Scenario analyses, conducted to assess the effects of stressors on the reef framework state, suggested that calcifying organisms and carbonate production, rather than bioerosion, had the largest influence on the reef carbonate budgetary state. Despite the overall budget remaining positive, anthropogenic pressures, particularly deterioration of water quality, affected reef carbonate production, representing a warning signal for potential changes in the reef state.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GC Oceanography
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Health > Biological Sciences, School of
Depositing User: Jim Jamieson
Date Deposited: 14 Mar 2016 12:49
Last Modified: 29 Jun 2018 11:15
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/16250

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