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You Can?t Win If You Don?t Fight: The Role of Regime Type in Counterinsurgency Outbreaks and Outcomes

Getmansky, A (2013) 'You Can?t Win If You Don?t Fight: The Role of Regime Type in Counterinsurgency Outbreaks and Outcomes.' Journal of Conflict Resolution, 57 (4). pp. 709-734. ISSN 0022-0027

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Abstract

What effect, if any, does democracy have on outcomes of counterinsurgency wars? Previous studies have provided inconclusive answers mainly because of the challenges involved in testing the question empirically: First, insurgencies are not accidental and the anticipated outcomes also affect whether they break out in the first place. Second, regimes are non-random and their determinants can also affect insurgency incidence and its outcomes. Moreover, different aspects of democracy can have opposite effects on the government's chances of winning. I address these challenges by conducting a critical test to distinguish between different causal mechanisms. I find that domestic institutions that are associated with public goods provision make insurgency onsets less likely. I also show that once we control for this selection effect, domestic political institutions do not influence insurgency outcomes.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: counterinsurgency; democracy; domestic politics; victory
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
J Political Science > JZ International relations
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 15 Apr 2016 14:26
Last Modified: 06 Jan 2022 13:18
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/16424

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