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Modelling the dynamics of support for a right-wing populist party: the case of UKIP

Clarke, H and Whiteley, P and Borges, W and Sanders, D and Stewart, M (2016) 'Modelling the dynamics of support for a right-wing populist party: the case of UKIP.' Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 26 (2). 135 - 154. ISSN 1745-7289

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Abstract

© 2016 Elections, Public Opinion & Parties. ABSTRACT: Similar to a number of other right-wing populist parties in Europe, Great Britain's United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has experienced increased public support in recent years. Using aggregate data from monthly national surveys conducted between April 2004 and April 2014, time series analyses demonstrate that the dynamics of UKIP support were influenced by a combination of spatial and valence issues. A spatial issue, Euroscepticism, was fundamental, with UKIP support moving in dynamic equilibrium with changing public attitudes towards EU membership. In addition, widespread anti-immigration sentiment and dissatisfaction with the performance of the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government combined with the “oxygen of publicity” to propel UKIP's surge. The political context after the 2010 general election helped as well by enabling UKIP to benefit from valence considerations. Many voters continued to doubt the competence of the major opposition party, Labour, while the Liberal Democrats were part of the government and, hence, unavailable as a protest vehicle. Since many of the forces driving UKIP support are beyond its control, the party's prospects are highly uncertain.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
Depositing User: Jim Jamieson
Date Deposited: 05 Jul 2016 14:22
Last Modified: 30 Jan 2019 16:20
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/17103

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