Research Repository

Predicting the decline of ethnic civil war: Was gurr right and for the right reasons?

Cederman, LE and Gleditsch, KS and Wucherpfennig, J (2017) 'Predicting the decline of ethnic civil war: Was gurr right and for the right reasons?' Journal of Peace Research, 54 (2). pp. 262-274. ISSN 0022-3433

short_decline_2016-07-20.pdf - Accepted Version

Download (324kB) | Preview


© The Author(s) 2017. Many scholars have detected a decrease of political violence, but the causes of this decline remain unclear. As a contribution to this debate, we revisit the controversy over trends in conflict after the end of the Cold War. While many made ominous predictions of surging ethnic warfare, Gurr presented evidence of a pacifying trend since the mid-1990s and predicted a further decline in ethnic conflict in an article on ‘the waning of ethnic war’. Leveraging more recent data on ethnic groups and their participation in ethnic civil wars, this study evaluates if Gurr was right about the decline of ethnic conflict, and if he was right for the right reasons. We assess whether an increase in governments’ accommodative policies toward ethnic groups can plausibly account for a decline in ethnic civil war. Our findings lend considerable support to an account of the pacifying trend that stresses the granting of group rights, regional autonomy, and inclusion in power-sharing, as well as democratization and peacekeeping.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: civil war; decline of war; ethnic conflict; ethnic inclusion; group rights; power sharing
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 21 Jul 2016 12:34
Last Modified: 15 Jan 2022 00:49

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item