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Risk-Exposure Density and Mileage Bias in Crash Risk for Older Drivers

Rolison, JJ and Moutari, S (2018) 'Risk-Exposure Density and Mileage Bias in Crash Risk for Older Drivers.' American Journal of Epidemiology, 187 (1). 53 - 59. ISSN 0002-9262

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Abstract

Driver crash rates per mile indicate high crash risk in older age. A reliance on mileage alone may underestimate risk exposure of older drivers as they tend to avoid highways and travel more on non-freeways (e.g., urban roads) that present greater hazards. We introduce risk exposure density as an index of exposure that incorporates mileage, frequency of travel, and travel duration. Population-wide driver fatalities in the U.S. during 2002?2012 were assessed per driver age (16?20, 21?29, 30?39, 40?49, 50?59, 60?69, >70 years) and gender. Mileage, frequency, and duration of travel per person were used to assess risk exposure. Mileage-based fatal crash risk increased greatly among male (RR=1.73; 95% CI:1.62,1.83) and female (RR=2.08; 95% CI:1.97,2.19) drivers from age 60?69 years to age >70 years. Adjusting for their density of risk exposure, fatal crash risk increased only slightly from age 60?69 years to age >70 years among male (RR=1.09; 95% CI:1.03,1.15) and female (RR=1.22; 95% CI:1.16,1.29) drivers. While ubiquitous in epidemiology research, mileage-based assessments can produce misleading accounts of driver risk. Risk exposure density incorporates multiple components of travel and reduces bias caused by any single indicator of risk exposure.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: epidemiologic studies risk assessment travel gender older drivers
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Health > Psychology, Department of
Depositing User: Jonathan Rolison
Date Deposited: 22 Jun 2017 10:02
Last Modified: 22 May 2018 14:20
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/19888

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