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The Resource Curse, Commodity Prices and Economic Growth

Kellard, NM and Harvey, D and Madsen, J and Wohar, M (2018) 'The Resource Curse, Commodity Prices and Economic Growth.' In: Pfaffenzeller, S, (ed.) Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics. Routledge Studies in Development Economics . Routledge, 16 - 50. ISBN 978-1138898257, 1138898252

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The direction of trend in relative commodity prices has implications for many developing country growth rates. To assess causal underpinnings we create ultra- long aggregate series shaped by common factors. Tests show that series present a downward trend over the entire sample which can be broken into 4 regimes of predominantly increasing decline: 1650-1820, 1821-1872, 1873-1946 and 1947- 2010. We argue factors like technology are commensurate with this structure. Finally, we suggest the trend in economic activity is a proxy for such factors and show a negative relationship between trends in commodity prices and World GDP that helps explain the resource curse.

Item Type: Book Section
Additional Information: This is an Accepted Manuscript of a book chapter published by Routledge in Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics on 19 January 2018, available online:
Uncontrolled Keywords: Primary commodities, Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, Economic growth, Structural breaks, Cycles, Resource Curse
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 18 Dec 2017 11:37
Last Modified: 19 Jul 2019 01:00

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