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Climate Impacts, Political Institutions, and Leader Survival: Effects of Drought and Flooding Precipitation.

Smirnov, O and Steinwand, MC and Xiao, T and Zhang, M (2018) 'Climate Impacts, Political Institutions, and Leader Survival: Effects of Drought and Flooding Precipitation.' Economics of Disasters and Climate Change. ISSN 2511-1280

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We explore how the political survival of leaders in different political regimes is affected by drought and flooding precipitation, which are the two major anticipated impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Using georeferenced climate data for the entire world and the Archigos dataset for the period of 1950-2010, we find that irregular political exits, such as coups or revolutions, are not significantly affected by climate impacts. Similarly, drought has a positive but insignificant effect on all types of political exits. On the other hand, we find that floods increase political turnover through the regular means such as elections or term limits. Democracies are better able to withstand the pressures arising from the economic and social disruptions associated with high precipitation than other institutional arrangements. Our results further suggest that, in the context of floods, political institutions play a more important role than economic development for the leaders’ political survival.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Political leader survival; Natural disasters; Flooding precipitation; Extreme drought; Democracy
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 21 Feb 2018 12:20
Last Modified: 29 Jan 2019 02:00

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