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Quantile Forecast Combinations in Realised Volatility Prediction

Meligkotsidou, Loukia and Panopoulou, Ekaterini and Vrontos, Ioannis and Vrontos, Spyridon D (2019) 'Quantile Forecast Combinations in Realised Volatility Prediction.' Journal of the Operational Research Society. ISSN 0160-5682

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Abstract

This paper tests whether it is possible to improve point, quantile and density forecasts of realised volatility by conditioning on a set of predictive variables. We employ quantile autoregressive models augmented with macroeconomic and financial variables. Complete subset combinations of both linear and quantile forecasts enable us to efficiently summarise the information content in the candidate predictors. Our findings suggest that no single variable is able to provide more information for the evolution of the volatility distribution beyond that contained in its own past. The best performing variable is the return on the stock market followed by the inflation rate. Our complete subset approach achieves superior point, quantile and density predictive performance relative to the univariate models and the autoregressive benchmark.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Forecasting; Realised volatility; Forecast combination; Predictive quantile regression; Subset quantile regressions.
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Health > Mathematical Sciences, Department of
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 14 Sep 2018 09:19
Last Modified: 25 Jan 2019 15:15
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/22208

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