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Negotiations in the Shadow of Outside Alternatives: An Estimation Strategy

Radean, Marius (2018) 'Negotiations in the Shadow of Outside Alternatives: An Estimation Strategy.' Sociological Methods and Research. ISSN 0049-1241

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Abstract

Many political and socio-economic binary outcomes are the result of multi-actor interaction: states joining a given international institution (e.g., military alliance, economic block) and not its rivals, people entering the workforce as an employee of a specific firm and not of its competitors, etc. Yet, most empirical studies analyze multilateral phenomena as the (joint) binary choice of either a single or, at most, two decision-makers. This is due in part to a lack of empirical estimators that can efficiently deal with multi-actor interaction. Analyzing multilateral processes as a set of either monadic or dyadic events, though, introduces bias, and has important consequences for the estimates and ultimately the inferences that one would draw. In this paper, I develop a new empirical estimator that is specifically designed to analyze multiparty interactions. Specifically, the model can accommodate the input of multiple actors into a unified, overarching decision making process. Results from a Monte Carlo analysis and an application to real data on alliance formation demonstrate the superior performance of the new estimator relative to the standard approach.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: partial observability models, limited dependent variable, multiparty interactions, conditional logit, joint binary decisions
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 05 Sep 2018 13:13
Last Modified: 05 Sep 2018 14:15
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/22795

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