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Forecasting with demand systems. A comparative study

Chambers, MJ (1990) 'Forecasting with demand systems. A comparative study.' Journal of Econometrics, 44 (3). 363 - 376. ISSN 0304-4076

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Six systems of consumer demand equations are considered using seasonally adjusted quarterly U.K. data. The homogeneity and symmetry restrictions are tested where appropriate and are only convincingly rejected by one model. The estimated models are used to generate forecasts using fourteen post-sample observations and a simple habit formation model is found to be superior. Each system is tested for parameter constancy over the forecast period and only the dynamic models pass this test. The results highlight the importance of dynamics in demand systems but suggest that simpler structures may be more appropriate for forecasting. The use of small-sample adjusted test statistics can have a dramatic impact on inferences drawn. © 1990.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics, Department of
Depositing User: Jim Jamieson
Date Deposited: 08 Jul 2012 09:38
Last Modified: 05 Feb 2019 18:15

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