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Intelligent swarm firefly algorithm for the prediction of China's national electricity consumption

Zhang, Guangfeng and Chen, Yi and Li, Yun and Yu, Hongnian and Hu, Huosheng and Wu, Shaomin (2019) 'Intelligent swarm firefly algorithm for the prediction of China's national electricity consumption.' International Journal of Bio-Inspired Computation, 13 (2). 111 - 111. ISSN 1758-0366

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Abstract

China's energy consumption is the world's largest and is still rising, leading to concerns of energy shortage and environmental issues. It is, therefore, necessary to estimate the energy demand and to examine the dynamic nature of the electricity consumption. In this paper, we develop a nonlinear model of energy consumption and utilise a computational intelligence approach, specifically a swarm firefly algorithm with a variable population, to examine China's electricity consumption with historical statistical data from 1980 to 2012. Prediction based on these data using the model and the examination is verified with a bivariate sensitivity analysis, a bias analysis and a forecasting exercise, which all suggest that the national macroeconomic performance, the electricity price, the electricity consumption efficiency and the economic structure are four critical factors determining national electricity consumption. Actuate prediction of the consumption is important as it has explicit policy implications on the electricity sector development and planning for power plants.

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Health > Computer Science and Electronic Engineering, School of
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 04 Feb 2021 14:36
Last Modified: 04 Feb 2021 14:36
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/27646

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