Trojan Horse, Copycat, or Scapegoat? Unpacking the Refugees-Terrorism Nexus

Widespread fear that hosting refugees will mean more terrorism in host states is at theheart of the ‘refugee crisis’. Yet, we lack rigorous evidence for such claims. This articletheoretically unpacks how and under what conditions transnational refugee movementsplausibly lead to different types of terrorist outcomes. Combining original data witha multi-pronged approach involving a treatment-placebo design as well as instrumentalvariable estimation, we provide systematic and robust evidence that sheds new light onthe security implications of transnational forced migration. Our findings challenge theclaim that hosting refugees heightens the risk of “importing” terrorist attacks againstnationals of host countries, especially in developed countries. However, in these coun-tries refugees themselves are particularly prone to becoming the targets of retaliatoryterrorist attacks by natives, driven by fear. Dominant policy responses to the refugeecrisis that raise fears and suspicions are therefore not only ill-suited, but potentiallycounterproductive.