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Heuristic procedures for improving the predictability of a genetic programming financial forecasting algorithm

Kampouridis, Michael and Otero, Fernando EB (2017) 'Heuristic procedures for improving the predictability of a genetic programming financial forecasting algorithm.' Soft Computing, 21 (2). pp. 295-310. ISSN 1432-7643

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Abstract

Financial forecasting is an important area in computational finance. Evolutionary Dynamic Data Investment Evaluator (EDDIE) is an established genetic programming (GP) financial forecasting algorithm, which has successfully been applied to a number of international financial datasets. The purpose of this paper is to further improve the algorithm’s predictive performance, by incorporating heuristics in the search. We propose the use of two heuristics: a sequential covering strategy to iteratively build a solution in combination with the GP search and the use of an entropy-based dynamic discretisation procedure of numeric values. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed improvements, we test the new EDDIE version (EDDIE 9) across 20 datasets and compare its predictive performance against three previous EDDIE algorithms. In addition, we also compare our new algorithm’s performance against C4.5 and RIPPER, two state-of-the-art classification algorithms. Results show that the introduction of heuristics is very successful, allowing the algorithm to outperform all previous EDDIE versions and the well-known C4.5 and RIPPER algorithms. Results also show that the algorithm is able to return significantly high rates of return across the majority of the datasets.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Genetic programming; Financial forecasting; EDDIE; Sequential covering; Dynamic discretisation
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Health
Faculty of Science and Health > Computer Science and Electronic Engineering, School of
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 01 Mar 2021 08:40
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2022 19:39
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/29964

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