Explaining Foreign Policy Change on the Korean Peninsula

The diplomatic situation on the Korean Peninsula is characterised by both cooperation and conflict between various states. Two major issues affect these international relationships, (1) the North Korean nuclear crisis, (2) the power competition between the US and China. There are four major actors in these relations, South Korea, North Korea, the US and China. This study aims to analyse how changes in the relationship between two different actors around the Korean Peninsula impact another country’s foreign policy. Specifically, this study focuses on three different relations, (1) the relationship between US–China relations and South Korean foreign policy change, (2) the relationship between US–South Korea relations and North Korean foreign policy change, and (3) the relationship between the US–China conflict and South Korean naval development. This work uses the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) dataset and vector autoregressive (VAR) time series analysis to study changes in the relationships between countries and changes in a country’s foreign policy over time. This study aims to present a new perspective on understanding international relations around the Korean Peninsula through a time series analysis of these three different relations. This thesis provides three academic and policy implications. First, to understand international relations around the Korean Peninsula, it is essential to understand the mechanism of foreign policy change in a specific country rather than analyse foreign policy at a certain point in time. Second, when analysing one country’s foreign policy change, it is also necessary to consider the relationship between neighbouring countries as a significant variable. Finally, by focusing on the maritime conflict currently escalating in Northeast Asia, this study aims to emphasise the importance of naval power as an international factor of foreign policy change.