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New Deals “The Second After Leaving?” IO Withdrawal and Bilateral Trade

Bakaki, Zorzeta and Bohmelt, Tobias (2022) 'New Deals “The Second After Leaving?” IO Withdrawal and Bilateral Trade.' The British Journal of Politics and International Relations. p. 136914812210824. ISSN 1369-1481

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The Brexit campaign was based on the idea that newly gained British sovereignty and flexibility in global trade governance would facilitate the quick negotiation of preferential trade agreements. We explore how long it may take for a state to negotiate bilateral preferential trade agreements to offset potential losses from International Organizations withdrawals. We address the question of “timing,” and discuss several mechanisms that delay or speed up the implementation of bilateral trade deals after exiting International Organizations. The empirical findings are based on quantitative data and models accounting for the likely simultaneous relationship between International Organizations exits and preferential trade agreements’ formation. We show that leaving economic organisations significantly lowers the likelihood of subsequent preferential trade agreements ratification. This effect wears out after about one year. This research has crucial implications for our understanding of International Organizations, state benefits’ stemming from their membership therein, bilateral trade deals, and international cooperation.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: bilateral trade agreements, International Organizations, preferential trade, withdrawal
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 26 Apr 2022 16:57
Last Modified: 26 Apr 2022 16:59

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