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Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space

Buhaug, Halvard and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede (2008) 'Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space.' International Studies Quarterly, 52 (2). pp. 215-233. ISSN 0020-8833

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Civil wars cluster in space as well as time. In this study, we develop and evaluate empirically alternative explanations for this observed clustering. We consider whether the spatial pattern of intrastate conflict simply stems from a similar distribution of relevant country attributes or whether conflicts indeed constitute a threat to other proximate states. Our results strongly suggest that there is a genuine neighborhood effect of armed conflict, over and beyond what individual country characteristics can account for. We then examine whether the risk of contagion depends on the degree of exposure to proximate conflicts. Contrary to common expectations, this appears not to be the case. Rather, we find that conflict is more likely when there are ethnic ties to groups in a neighboring conflict and that contagion is primarily a feature of separatist conflicts. This suggests that transnational ethnic linkages constitute a central mechanism of conflict contagion. © 2008 International Studies Association.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: J Political Science > JZ International relations
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 29 Apr 2013 14:03
Last Modified: 18 Aug 2022 10:57

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