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Valence politics and economic crisis: Electoral choice in Canada 2008

Clarke, Harold D and Scotto, Thomas and Kornberg, Allan (2011) 'Valence politics and economic crisis: Electoral choice in Canada 2008.' Electoral Studies, 30 (3). pp. 438-449. ISSN 0261-3794

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This paper investigates factors affecting voting behavior in Canada’s October 2008 federal election. The election was held in the context of a rapidly worsening financial crisis that threatened to become a global economic meltdown. National survey data gathered in the 2008 Political Support in Canada Study reveal that the deteriorating economy trumped the opposition Liberal Party’s Green Shift Program as the major campaign issue by a huge margin. Damage done to the governing Conservatives by the economic crisis was limited by perceptions of their leader, Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Analyses of a mixed logit model of electoral choice shows that although the Conservatives had a relatively small share of party identifiers and Harper was widely disliked, his image as “safe pair on hands” helped his party weather the political storm generated by the flood of bad economic news.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Economic crisis; Green shift; Leader images; Mixed logit; Valence issues
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
Depositing User: Jim Jamieson
Date Deposited: 30 Apr 2013 13:12
Last Modified: 30 Apr 2013 13:12

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