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The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters

LAMLA, MICHAEL J and MAAG, THOMAS (2012) 'The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters.' Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44 (7). pp. 1325-1350. ISSN 0022-2879

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This paper investigates the effects of media coverage about consumer price inflation on inflation forecast disagreement of German households and professional forecasters. We adopt a Bayesian learning model in which media coverage of inflation affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show that disagreement of households depends on the heterogeneity of story content and on the reporting intensity, especially of news on rising inflation. Disagreement of professional forecasters does not depend on media coverage. With respect to the influence of macroeconomic variables, we provide evidence that disagreement of professional forecasters primarily depends on the inflation rate and on inflation volatility. The response of households to inflation is much less pronounced. © 2012 The Ohio State University.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: D83; E31; E37; forecast disagreement; inflation expectations; media coverage
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 18 Sep 2013 10:14
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2022 18:43

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