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Forecasting EUR-USD implied volatility: The case of intraday data

Dunis, C and Kellard, NM and Snaith, S (2013) 'Forecasting EUR-USD implied volatility: The case of intraday data.' Journal of Banking and Finance, 37 (12). 4943 - 4957. ISSN 0378-4266

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This study models and forecasts the evolution of intraday implied volatility on an underlying EUR-USD exchange rate for a number of maturities. To our knowledge we are the first to employ high frequency data in this context. This allows the construction of forecasting models that can attempt to exploit intraday seasonalities such as overnight effects. Results show that implied volatility is predictable at shorter horizons, within a given day and across the term structure. Moreover, at the conventional daily frequency, intraday seasonality effects can be used to augment the forecasting power of models. The type of inefficiency revealed suggests potentially profitable trading models. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School
Depositing User: Jo Wiltshire
Date Deposited: 16 Sep 2013 16:06
Last Modified: 03 Jul 2019 21:15

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