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A Neural Network Approach to Forecast the Development of Regional Labour Markets in West Germany

Longhi, Simonetta and Nijkamp, Peter and Reggiani, Aura and Maierhofer, Erich (2005) 'A Neural Network Approach to Forecast the Development of Regional Labour Markets in West Germany.' International Regional Science Review, 28 (3). pp. 330-346. ISSN 0160-0176

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Abstract

This article analyzes artificial neural networks (ANNs) as a method to compute employment forecasts at a regional level. The empirical application is based on employment data collected for 327West German regionsover a periodof fourteenyears. First, the authors compare ANNs to models commonly used in panel data analysis. Second, they verify, in the case of panel data, whether the common practice of combining forecasts of the computed models is able to produce more reliable forecasts. The technique currently employed by the German authorities to compute such regional employment forecasts is comparable to a simple naïve no-change model. For this reason, ANNs are also compared to this undemanding technique.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Institute for Social and Economic Research
Depositing User: Jim Jamieson
Date Deposited: 05 Dec 2013 16:23
Last Modified: 05 Dec 2013 16:23
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/7854

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