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Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: an Application to German Regional Labour Markets

Patuelli, Roberto and Longhi, Simonetta and Reggiani, Aura and Nijkamp, Peter (2003) 'Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: an Application to German Regional Labour Markets.' Studies in Regional Science, 33 (3). pp. 205-229. ISSN 0287-6256

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Abstract

This paper develops a flexible multi-dimensional assessment method for the comparison of different statistical-econometric techniques based on learning mechanisms with a view to analysing and forecasting regional labour markets. The aim of this paper is twofold. A first major objective is to explore the use of a standard choice tool, namely Multicriteria Analysis (MCA), in order to cope with the intrinsic methodological uncertainty on the choice of a suitable statistical-econometric learning technique for regional labour market analysis. MCA is applied here to support choices on the performance of various models -based on classes of Neural Network (NN) techniques-that serve to generate employment forecasts in West Germany at a regional/district level. A second objective of the paper is to analyse the methodological potential of a blend of approaches (NN-MCA) in order to extend the analysis framework to other economic research domains, where formal models are not available, but where a variety of statistical data is present. The paper offers a basis for a more balanced judgement of the performance of rival statistical tests.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Institute for Social and Economic Research
Depositing User: Jim Jamieson
Date Deposited: 16 Dec 2013 11:17
Last Modified: 16 Dec 2013 11:17
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/7901

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