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Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design?

Delavande, Adeline and Giné, Xavier and McKenzie, David (2011) 'Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design?' Journal of Applied Econometrics, 26 (3). pp. 479-497. ISSN 0883-7252

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Abstract

Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. We conduct an experiment in India which tests the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (predetermined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. Our results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Institute for Social and Economic Research
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 26 Sep 2013 13:23
Last Modified: 15 Jan 2022 00:51
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/7984

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