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Failing to succeed? The cumulative impact of international mediation revisited

Böhmelt, Tobias (2013) 'Failing to succeed? The cumulative impact of international mediation revisited.' Conflict Management and Peace Science, 30 (3). pp. 199-219. ISSN 0738-8942

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Abstract

<jats:p> Previous studies argue that the cumulation of mediations generally decreases uncertainty and ultimately helps to solve a conflict peacefully. Yet the empirical evidence for this is inconclusive, suggesting that existent theoretical accounts might be incomplete. For addressing this shortcoming, the paper develops an argument for a curvilinear relationship between the cumulation of mediations and mediation effectiveness. Based upon this rationale, it is less likely that initial mediation attempts succeed, but—after a turning point has been reached—subsequent mediations are more likely to induce an effective resolution of a dispute. The author also argues that this effect should be stronger if the same actors mediate over the course of a conflict. The empirical implications of this theoretical revision are tested in a quantitative framework employing data for 1816–2001. The results provide strong support for the theory. </jats:p>

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Cumulative impact; international mediation; mediation effectiveness
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
SWORD Depositor: Elements
Depositing User: Elements
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2014 11:33
Last Modified: 15 Jan 2022 00:48
URI: http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/8626

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