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Failing to succeed? The cumulative impact of international mediation revisited1

Böhmelt, T (2013) 'Failing to succeed? The cumulative impact of international mediation revisited1.' Conflict Management and Peace Science, 30 (3). 199 - 219. ISSN 0738-8942

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Previous studies argue that the cumulation of mediations generally decreases uncertainty and ultimately helps to solve a conflict peacefully. Yet the empirical evidence for this is inconclusive, suggesting that existent theoretical accounts might be incomplete. For addressing this shortcoming, the paper develops an argument for a curvilinear relationship between the cumulation of mediations and mediation effectiveness. Based upon this rationale, it is less likely that initial mediation attempts succeed, but-after a turning point has been reached-subsequent mediations are more likely to induce an effective resolution of a dispute. The author also argues that this effect should be stronger if the same actors mediate over the course of a conflict. The empirical implications of this theoretical revision are tested in a quantitative framework employing data for 1816-2001. The results provide strong support for the theory. © The Author(s) 2013.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of
Depositing User: Jim Jamieson
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2014 11:33
Last Modified: 30 Jan 2019 20:15

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