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The causal effect of trade on migration: Evidence from countries of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership

Campaniello, Nadia (2014) 'The causal effect of trade on migration: Evidence from countries of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership.' Labour Economics, 30. 223 - 233. ISSN 0927-5371

The causal effect of trade on migration_Evidence from countries of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership.pdf - Accepted Version

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In the attempt to reduce migration pressure, since 1995, the European Union has been planning to establish a free trade area with developing countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea. The process is still ongoing. Our paper tests whether it is likely to be an effective policy. We estimate a gravitational model of bilateral migrations on bilateral exports from the Mediterranean Third Countries (South) to the European Union (North) over the period 1970–2000, using different specifications. We find, in line with most of the literature, a significantly positive correlation (called “complementarity”) between exports and migrations from the South to the North. Then we go one step further, trying to solve the potential endogeneity problem using average trade tariffs and bilateral exchange rate volatility as instruments for trade. Based on the OLS as well as the 2SLS results, liberalizing trade in the area of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership does not seem to be an effective policy to mitigate the migration flows, at least in the short run.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: International trade, Migration, Causality, Gravity model, Euro-Mediterranean partnership, Exchange rate volatility
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics, Department of
Depositing User: Jim Jamieson
Date Deposited: 08 Dec 2014 15:17
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2020 08:15

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