Jenseits von Schwerkraft und Höllenfeuer. Nicht-lineare Kontexteffekte auf den Zusammenhang von religiöser Gruppenzugehörigkeit und individuellem Wahlverhalten bei fünf Bundestagswahlen

This article investigates the moderating effect of social context on the relationship between religion and vote choice. Whereas theories of electoral research and the sociology of religion assume a linear contextual effect, we develop a new theoretical argument that predicts a non-linear effect. The results of logistic multilevel analyses confirm this theory for the Catholic milieu: The effect of catholic denomination on voting for the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) first increases with the share of Catholics in the context and decreases when they are in the clear majority. This finding – which contradicts former studies – holds for all federal elections under consideration (1994-2009), withstands several robustness tests and provides important evidence for the perpetuation of the traditional Catholic voting norm through group processes.