Do International Organizations Reduce the Risk of Crisis Recurrence?

This paper examines the effect of international organizations (IOs) on the recurrence of international crises. In line with existing literature on conflict onset, I suggest that country-dyads with more co-memberships in IOs have a lower probability of fighting again. Moving beyond this claim, however, I argue that the scope and mandate of the IO are not relevant for the risk of crisis recurrence. Ultimately, all types of IOs promote links between states and strengthen their chances for effective international cooperation. Empirically, I examine the probability of crisis recurrence between 1950 and 2008, using the count of dyadic co-memberships as the main explanatory variable. The results show that co-membership in any type of IO has negative and significant impact on crisis recurrence. Moreover, the disaggregation of IOs into different categories (e.g., those dedicated to conflict prevention, peace-brokering, or security) also points to a negative effect. The effects of IOs disaggregated by type, however, are not significantly different from the overall IO impact.