Christinaki, Eirini and Papastylianou, Tasos and Carletto, Sara and Gonzalez-Martinez, Sergio and Ostacoli, Luca and Ottaviano, Manuel and Poli, Riccardo and Citi, Luca (2020) Well-being Forecasting using a Parametric Transfer-Learning method based on the Fisher Divergence and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. EAI Endorsed Transactions on Bioengineering and Bioinformatics, 1 (1). p. 166661. DOI https://doi.org/10.4108/eai.16-10-2020.166661
Christinaki, Eirini and Papastylianou, Tasos and Carletto, Sara and Gonzalez-Martinez, Sergio and Ostacoli, Luca and Ottaviano, Manuel and Poli, Riccardo and Citi, Luca (2020) Well-being Forecasting using a Parametric Transfer-Learning method based on the Fisher Divergence and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. EAI Endorsed Transactions on Bioengineering and Bioinformatics, 1 (1). p. 166661. DOI https://doi.org/10.4108/eai.16-10-2020.166661
Christinaki, Eirini and Papastylianou, Tasos and Carletto, Sara and Gonzalez-Martinez, Sergio and Ostacoli, Luca and Ottaviano, Manuel and Poli, Riccardo and Citi, Luca (2020) Well-being Forecasting using a Parametric Transfer-Learning method based on the Fisher Divergence and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. EAI Endorsed Transactions on Bioengineering and Bioinformatics, 1 (1). p. 166661. DOI https://doi.org/10.4108/eai.16-10-2020.166661
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Traditional personalised modelling typically requires sufficient personal data for training. This is a challenge in healthcare contexts, e.g. when using smartphones to predict well-being. OBJECTIVE: A method to produce incremental patient-specific models and forecasts even in the early stages of data collection when the data are sporadic and limited. METHODS: We propose a parametric transfer-learning method based on the Fisher divergence, where information from other patients is injected as a prior term into a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo framework. We test our method on the NEVERMIND dataset of self-reported well-being scores. RESULTS: Out of 54 scenarios representing varying training/forecasting lengths and competing methods, our method achieved overall best performance in 50 (92.6%) and demonstrated a significant median difference in45 (83.3%). CONCLUSION: The method performs favourably overall, particularly when long-term forecasts are required given short-term data.
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | Transfer Learning, MCMC, Bayesian Inference, Well-being Prediction, Personalised Modelling, NEVERMIND |
Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Health Faculty of Science and Health > Computer Science and Electronic Engineering, School of Faculty of Science and Health > Health and Social Care, School of |
SWORD Depositor: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Date Deposited: | 13 Nov 2020 14:36 |
Last Modified: | 16 May 2024 20:36 |
URI: | http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/29091 |
Available files
Filename: eai.16-10-2020.166661.pdf
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0