Astill, Sam and Harvey, David I and Leybourne, Stephen J and Taylor, AM Robert and Zu, Yang (2023) CUSUM-Based Monitoring for Explosive Episodes in Financial Data in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 21 (1). pp. 187-227. DOI https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbab009
Astill, Sam and Harvey, David I and Leybourne, Stephen J and Taylor, AM Robert and Zu, Yang (2023) CUSUM-Based Monitoring for Explosive Episodes in Financial Data in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 21 (1). pp. 187-227. DOI https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbab009
Astill, Sam and Harvey, David I and Leybourne, Stephen J and Taylor, AM Robert and Zu, Yang (2023) CUSUM-Based Monitoring for Explosive Episodes in Financial Data in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 21 (1). pp. 187-227. DOI https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbab009
Abstract
We generalise the Homm and Breitung (2012) CUSUM-based procedure for the real-time detection of explosive autoregressive episodes in financial price data to allow for time-varying volatility. Such behaviour can heavily in ate the false positive rate [FPR] of the CUSUM based procedure to spuriously signal the presence of an explosive episode. Our modified procedure involves replacing the standard variance estimate in the CUSUM statistics with a nonparametric kernel-based spot variance estimate. We show that the sequence of modified CUSUM statistics has a joint limiting null distribution which is invariant to any time-varying volatility present in the innovations and that this delivers a real-time monitoring procedure whose theoretical FPR is controlled. Simulations show that the modification is effective in controlling the empirical FPR of the procedure, yet sacrifices only a small amount of power to detect explosive episodes, relative to the standard procedure, when the shocks are homoskedastic. An empirical illustration using Bitcoin price data is provided.
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | Rational bubble; explosive autoregression; CUSUM; real-time monitoring; nonparametric spot volatility estimator |
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School |
SWORD Depositor: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Date Deposited: | 16 Mar 2021 13:21 |
Last Modified: | 16 May 2024 20:44 |
URI: | http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/30046 |
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