Creating Small Area Income Deprivation Estimates For Northern Ireland: Spatial Microsimulation Modelling

This paper describes results from a preliminary investigation of the value of a spatial microsimulation technique in the estimation, for each SOA in Northern Ireland, of the incidence of income poverty as measured by the proportion of households whose income is below 60% of the UK median household income (%HBAI). In this paper we describe the spatial microsimulation approach and then present small area (SOA) estimates of median household income validated against the equivalent measure NIMDM 2005 income domain score, and the Experian 2005 median income estimates. We then turn to the %HBAI estimates and describe firstly results based on unequivalised gross income for 2004/5 using the FRS 2004/5 and the UK Census 2001. We then discuss results equivalised net household income before housing costs for 2003/5 using the UK Census 2001 and a pooled 2003/4 and 2004/5 FRS dataset. We discuss the results of validation against the source FRS and against the NIMDM income domain score. The paper concludes with a summary of the findings and recommendations for further work.