The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine on Sino-European relations

This paper analyses the development of Sino-European relations following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. I argue that the behaviour of European and Chinese leaders is driven by the availability and attractiveness of outside options. While both sides want to reduce their dependence on the other, neither actor seeks a radical decoupling. Measures to diversify supply chains, the negotiation of new trade agreements around the world, and the ‘technology war’ have made Beijing’s outside options less favourable. Europeans are emboldened to articulate their interests more forcefully, particularly in the areas of human rights, scrutiny of foreign funding, and economic coercion. China, in turn, provides diplomatic cover for Russia but resists undermining Western sanctions.