Temporal global trends of human population and dependency on coral reefs

Research on human populations and dependency on coral reefs is relatively sparse, and often uses recycled statistics that have not been updated for many years. In light of climate change on coral reefs, its vital that continual assessments not only on coral reef ecosystems, but additionally the communities that rely on them is maintained in order to inform climate resilience. I aimed to 1) update statistics and create a long-term dataset of human populations near coral reefs, and 2) develop a human dependency framework that is reproducible and adaptable to newly available data. Using openly accessible data, of LandScan and global coral reef distribution map, I found that nearly 1 billon people live within 100 km of coral reefs in 2020. I developed a conceptual human dependency framework, which encompassed four pre-defined dependency categories, of fisheries, tourism, coastal protection and nutrition. Using an indicator approach, openly accessible data was collected for each category. The Human dependency on coral reef index (HDCRI) was developed and calculated, and were complemented by hybrid learning techniques. Human dependency “profiles” were created, and presented, how countries were dependent on coral reef ecosystems and what indicators were driving the dependency. The conceptual framework, aimed to shift thinking of human dependency on a linear scale from low to high dependency, towards a more holistic view on human dependency. The human dependency framework and population methods, were designed to be reproducible and adaptable to different scales of data (e.g. regional and national levels), and updated with improved datasets. The outputs of these studies are aimed to improve coral science by facilitating human aspects to research, additionally, to create more informed decision making to policymakers in distributing funds and resources. Finally, to facilitate a novel tool of insurance as a form of climate resilience, for coral reefs and the humans that depend on them.