Swatton, Philip (2024) Social democratic party positions on the EU: The case of Brexit. Party Politics, 30 (5). pp. 808-822. DOI https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231177557
Swatton, Philip (2024) Social democratic party positions on the EU: The case of Brexit. Party Politics, 30 (5). pp. 808-822. DOI https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231177557
Swatton, Philip (2024) Social democratic party positions on the EU: The case of Brexit. Party Politics, 30 (5). pp. 808-822. DOI https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688231177557
Abstract
<jats:p> In recent years, social democratic parties have been confronted with the rise of second dimension issues. These issues often see social democratic parties facing a choice between competing portions of their own electorate. A particularly prominent second dimension issue is that of the EU: should social democratic parties take pro or anti-EU positions? I look at the case of the UK as an instructive example of this debate. I estimate a narrow counterfactual, simulating how the Labour Party’s vote share and seat count would have changed as its position on Brexit changes. I call this counterfactual narrow because I only consider the effect of these position changes on vote choice and turnout, and not any broader consequences. I run two simulations to compare the implications of pure proximity and proximity-categorisation models of vote choice. I generate seat predictions from the simulation results by using Uniform National Swing and Uniform Regional Swing. Broadly, I find that being pro-Remain clearly benefited the party in terms of votes, but that results are more mixed in terms of seats. </jats:p>
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | spatial vote choice, ideology, party strategy, social democratic parties, Brexit |
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Government, Department of |
SWORD Depositor: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Date Deposited: | 20 Jul 2023 20:13 |
Last Modified: | 10 Oct 2024 21:18 |
URI: | http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/36034 |
Available files
Filename: swatton-2023-social-democratic-party-positions-on-the-eu-the-case-of-brexit.pdf
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0