Makhlouf, Yousef and Kellard, Neil and Vinogradov, Dmitri (2023) What moves commodity terms-of-trade? Evidence from 178 countries. Journal of Commodity Markets, 32. p. 100359. DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2023.100359
Makhlouf, Yousef and Kellard, Neil and Vinogradov, Dmitri (2023) What moves commodity terms-of-trade? Evidence from 178 countries. Journal of Commodity Markets, 32. p. 100359. DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2023.100359
Makhlouf, Yousef and Kellard, Neil and Vinogradov, Dmitri (2023) What moves commodity terms-of-trade? Evidence from 178 countries. Journal of Commodity Markets, 32. p. 100359. DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2023.100359
Abstract
Despite the important impact of commodity terms-of-trade (CTOT) on GDP growth, child mortality rates and public debt, little is known about its determinants. Using data from 178 countries (grouped according to their commodity export-import structure) over the period 1962 to 2020, we examine the short and long-run effects of global economic activity, OECD and emerging markets growth, the exchange rate of U.S. dollar, stock price volatility and real interest rates on CTOT growth. We demonstrate their typical asymmetric effect on exporters and importers, and show, for example, that the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar also exhibits opposite effects over the short and long-run due to inelastic commodity demand. We find that the growth of emerging market economies provides the most general and consistent effect across all of our subsamples (i.e., energy and non-energy exporters and importers) - this latter point underscores the contemporary global importance of developing countries growth.
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | commodity terms-of-trade; developing countries; macro-determinants |
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Essex Business School |
SWORD Depositor: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Date Deposited: | 22 Aug 2023 12:44 |
Last Modified: | 06 Oct 2023 15:34 |
URI: | http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/36182 |
Available files
Filename: CTOT determinants R2i.pdf
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0
Embargo Date: 11 September 2025