Information and communication technologies and the dynamics of civil conflict

This thesis explores the impacts of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on the dynamics of civil conflict, through three journal-style articles that are interrelated but examine different research questions. The first article examines the rationale behind violent attacks on telecommunication infrastructure by non-state actors during civil wars. Building on existing literature concerning rebel targeting, it posits that rebel groups engage in such targeting when they perceive a significant risk to their survival. This risk becomes more pronounced as rebels confront military forces with enhanced capabilities for detecting and targeting militants. Additionally, the article sheds light on the specific tendencies driven by the ideology of the group concerning target selection. The second article investigates the potential use of modern communication technologies by rebel groups and their impact on organisational effectiveness in ongoing conflicts, focusing on the third-generation mobile network in Afghanistan as a case. It contends that the adoption of modern communication technologies can yield improvements in areas where rebels already utilise telecommunications to some degree, including in-group monitoring, indoctrination and propaganda, diffusion of knowledge, real-time coordination, and intelligence gathering. The third article explores how state control over ICT infrastructure can facilitate digital surveillance and hinder militant mobilisation, prolonging the escalation of armed conflict. By linking the control of companies to the ownership structure, it offers a comprehensive overview of how states can exploit their control over ICT infrastructure to detect potential uprisings and preemptively respond to armed challengers. The findings of this thesis underscore the paramount significance of information in civil conflicts, particularly in scenarios where significant disparities in capabilities exist between opposing forces. Moreover, the thesis enhances our understanding of the interplay between information and communication technologies and conflict dynamics, illuminating how conflict actors strategically adapt their approaches in response to the opportunities and challenges presented by communication technologies.