Has age replaced class in British Elections?A hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis

This paper looks at changes in class and age-related cleavages in British electoral politics from 1964 to 2019, identifying differences between age, period and cohort effects. It uses Hierarchical- Age-Period-Cohort modelling to separate out these effects. The longitudinal analysis shows that the class model of party support developed by Butler and Stokes in the 1960s has considerably weakened and the age effects have become much stronger over time. However, these changes have different effects on support for the Conservatives and Labour. Cohort effects were largely absent in the case of Labour, but they played a central role in explaining declining support for the Conservatives among the young over a period of more than half century.