Adaptive social protection in Indonesia: Stress‐testing the effect of a natural disaster on poverty and vulnerability

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Indonesia is among the countries with the highest exposure to natural disasters, and risks are expected to increase due to climate change. Natural disasters and other shocks require well‐developed social protection systems that can cushion the economic consequences for those most vulnerable to these events. International stakeholders advocate for ‘Adaptive Social Protection’ which links social policy with strategies on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. This article uses the tax‐benefit microsimulation model INDOMOD to analyse the adaptiveness of the Indonesian social protection system by simulating an income shock caused by a natural disaster and testing reforms to the existing social protection system. We find that the existing system generally performs well in lifting people out of poverty in normal times but does not sufficiently help them to prepare for and cope with shocks. This is especially the case for large households, households with more than two children, people in their 20s and 80s and individuals with a disability. The tested hypothetical reforms reduce the impact of the shock and better target those identified as needing more support but require a substantial increase in social spending.</jats:p>