Deb, Soudeep and Roy, Rishideep and Das, Shubhabrata (2024) Forecasting Elections from Partial Information Using a Bayesian Model for a Multinomial Sequence of Data. Journal of Forecasting, 43 (6). pp. 1814-1834. DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3107
Deb, Soudeep and Roy, Rishideep and Das, Shubhabrata (2024) Forecasting Elections from Partial Information Using a Bayesian Model for a Multinomial Sequence of Data. Journal of Forecasting, 43 (6). pp. 1814-1834. DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3107
Deb, Soudeep and Roy, Rishideep and Das, Shubhabrata (2024) Forecasting Elections from Partial Information Using a Bayesian Model for a Multinomial Sequence of Data. Journal of Forecasting, 43 (6). pp. 1814-1834. DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3107
Abstract
Predicting the winner of an election is of importance to multiple stakeholders. To formulate the problem, we consider an independent sequence of categorical data with a finite number of possible outcomes in each. The data is assumed to be observed in batches, each of which is based on a large number of such trials and can be modelled via multinomial distributions. We postulate that the multinomial probabilities of the categories vary randomly depending on batches. The challenge is to predict accurately on cumulative data based on data up to a few batches as early as possible. On the theoretical front, we first derive sufficient conditions of asymptotic normality of the estimates of the multinomial cell probabilities and present corre- sponding suitable transformations. Then, in a Bayesian framework, we consider hierarchical priors using multivariate normal and inverse Wishart distributions and establish the posterior convergence. The desired inference is arrived at using these results and ensuing Gibbs sampling. The methodology is demonstrated with election data from two different settings — one from India and the other from the United States of America. Additional insights of the effectiveness of the proposed methodology are attained through a simulation study
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | Election data, Gibbs sampling, Hierarchical priors, Posterior convergence, Forecasting from partial information |
Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Health Faculty of Science and Health > Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, School of |
SWORD Depositor: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Date Deposited: | 08 Feb 2024 10:04 |
Last Modified: | 30 Oct 2024 21:35 |
URI: | http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/37768 |