Bowsher, CG and Meeks, R (2008) The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103 (484). pp. 1419-1437. DOI https://doi.org/10.1198/016214508000000922
Bowsher, CG and Meeks, R (2008) The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103 (484). pp. 1419-1437. DOI https://doi.org/10.1198/016214508000000922
Bowsher, CG and Meeks, R (2008) The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103 (484). pp. 1419-1437. DOI https://doi.org/10.1198/016214508000000922
Abstract
The class of Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN) models is introduced that provides a new, general method for modelling and forecasting time series of economic functions. The underlying, continuous economic function (or 'signal') is a natural cubic spline whose dynamic evolution is driven by a cointegrated vector autoregression for the ordinates (or 'y-values') at the knots of the spline. The natural cubic spline provides flexible cross-sectional fit and results in a linear, state space model. This FSN model achieves dimension reduction, provides a coherent description of the observed yield curve and its dynamics as the cross-sectional dimension N becomes large, and can feasibly be estimated and used for forecasting when N is large. The integration and cointegration properties of the model are derived. The FSN models are then applied to forecasting 36-dimensional yield curves for US Treasury bonds at the one month ahead horizon. The method consistently outperforms the Diebold and Li (2006) and random walk forecasts on the basis of both mean square forecast error criteria and economically relevant loss functions derived from the realised profits of pairs trading algorithms. The analysis also highlights in a concrete setting the dangers of attempts to infer the relative economic value of model forecasts on the basis of their associated mean square forecast errors.<P>(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | Forecasting interest rate; FSN?ECM models; Functional time series; Natural cubic spline; State-space form; Term structure |
Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics, Department of |
SWORD Depositor: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email elements@essex.ac.uk |
Date Deposited: | 07 Jan 2013 18:50 |
Last Modified: | 16 May 2024 18:32 |
URI: | http://repository.essex.ac.uk/id/eprint/5002 |